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Get filing alertsUnited raises full-year EPS guidance to $9–$11 despite $6B fuel cost headwind
Filed July 15, 2026 · Period ending July 15, 2026 · ~2 min read
Key Changes
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Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $9.00–$11.00; Q3 guidance $2.50–$3.50. Company expects to exceed high end of both ranges if fuel prices return to early July levels.
Exhibit 99.1 view on EDGAR → -
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Fuel costs up $6B for full year vs. initial expectations; Q2 fuel expense rose $2.3B (84% YoY). Company recovered ~50% of Q2 increase, expects 80–90% recovery in Q3 and 100% by Q4.
Exhibit 99.1 view on EDGAR → -
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Q3 and Q4 2026 TRASM growth expected to exceed Q2's 12.1% YoY increase. Premium revenue +16%, cargo +23%, contracted business +27%, economy cabin unit revenue +12% in Q2.
Exhibit 99.1 view on EDGAR → -
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Raised $3.7B in new liquidity during Q2 at attractive rates as insurance against geopolitical risks and oil price spikes. Prepaid ~$1B of higher-cost debt; plans further opportunistic paydowns.
Exhibit 99.1 view on EDGAR → -
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Q4 2026 capacity expected to decline from published schedules due to normal adjustments and FAA order extension at Chicago O'Hare. Company prepared to further moderate capacity with elevated fuel.
Exhibit 99.2 view on EDGAR →
Summary
United Airlines raised its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00–$11.00 despite facing nearly $6 billion in additional fuel costs versus initial expectations—a significant headwind that would derail most carriers. The guidance raise reflects management's confidence that strong revenue trends and pricing power will offset fuel pressure.
Q2 2026 results demonstrated this resilience: the company delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $1.99 while absorbing a $2.3 billion (84% year-over-year) fuel expense increase, recovering approximately $3.69 half through pricing.
Management expects to recover 80–90% of Q3 fuel increases and 100% by Q4, supported by broad-based revenue strength across premium (+16%), cargo (+23%), contracted business (+27%), and economy cabin segments (+12% unit revenue). The company raised $3.7 billion in new liquidity during Q2 at attractive rates, providing insurance against geopolitical uncertainty and potential oil price spikes while demonstrating improved lender confidence as United progresses toward investment-grade status. United has already prepaid approximately $1 billion of higher-cost debt and plans further opportunistic paydowns once fuel prices moderate. The filing also notes Q4 capacity will decline from published schedules due to normal adjustments and an FAA order extension at Chicago O'Hare, with management prepared to further moderate capacity if fuel remains elevated. For retail holders, the key takeaway is United's demonstrated ability to pass through fuel costs to customers with a one-to-two quarter lag, supported by product investments (Starlink on 450 aircraft, customer satisfaction scores twice as high on equipped flights) that are driving pricing power across all revenue segments.
Section-by-Section Diff
Event · Exhibit 99.2
United Airlines updates Q3 and full-year 2026 guidance, citing fuel price increases and strong revenue trends.
Added in current filing · view on EDGAR →
For the third quarter, the Company assumes an all-in average fuel price per gallon of approximately $3.69 based on the Gulf Coast jet forward curve as of July 14, 2026. Since the beginning of July, fuel for the Company has increased $575 million or $1.12 in adjusted diluted earnings per share2 for the third quarter alone.
United is introducing a new policy to base guidance on current fuel prices rather than historical assumptions. Fuel costs have increased $575 million since early July, representing a $1.12 per share headwind for Q3 2026 alone. The company assumes $3.69 per gallon for Q3 based on July 14, 2026 forward curves.
Added in current filing · view on EDGAR →
For the full year of 2026, the Company expects adjusted total capital expenditures3 of approximately $7.5 billion.
United expects approximately $7.5 billion in adjusted total capital expenditures for full-year 2026, reflecting ongoing fleet modernization and infrastructure investments.
Event · Exhibit 99.1
United Airlines reported Q2 2026 earnings above expectations and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $9.00–$11.00 despite nearly $6 billion in added fuel costs.
Added in current filing · view on EDGAR →
Q2 diluted earnings per share were $2.46; Q2 adjusted diluted earnings per share2 were $1.99
Full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance1 raised to $9.00 to $11.00
United reported Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $2.46 (adjusted $1.99), exceeding Wall Street expectations. The company raised its full-year 2026 adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $9.00–$11.00, demonstrating confidence despite significant fuel cost headwinds. This guidance raise signals management's view that revenue strength and operational improvements will offset the nearly $6 billion increase in anticipated fuel costs for the full year.
Added in current filing · view on EDGAR →
Premium revenue was up 16% compared to the second quarter of 2025, revenue from Basic Economy was up 11%, loyalty revenue was up 11% and cargo revenue was up 23%. Close-in demand remained robust with contracted business revenue up 27% in the quarter. The economy cabin continues to recover with unit revenue up 12%, marking two consecutive quarters of positive growth.
United delivered broad-based revenue growth across all segments in Q2 2026: premium revenue +16%, Basic Economy +11%, loyalty +11%, cargo +23%, and contracted business revenue +27%. Economy cabin unit revenue rose 12%, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. This diversified revenue strength demonstrates the success of United's customer investments (Starlink, Polaris, Premium Plus) and robust demand across both leisure and business travel segments.
Added in current filing · view on EDGAR →
Starlink is now installed on 450 United mainline and United Express aircraft. United remains on track to bring Starlink to the whole fleet by the end of 2027 — ahead of its large U.S. competitors. Starlink is free for MileagePlus® members and offers the fastest connectivity available for every customer on board. Customer satisfaction scores on flights with Starlink are twice as high as other United flights.
competitors. Customer satisfaction scores on Starlink-equipped flights are twice as high as other United flights. The service is free for MileagePlus members and offers the fastest available connectivity. This differentiator is driving measurable improvements in customer satisfaction and brand loyalty, supporting United's premium revenue growth.
Event · Item 7.01 — Regulation FD Disclosure
United Airlines posted an investor update with business outlook and financial guidance on its IR website.
Show 1 minor / wording change
Added in current filing · verify on EDGAR →
On July 15, 2026, the Company posted on its investor relations website at ir.united.com an investor update (the "Investor Update") providing additional information on the Company's business outlook (including certain financial and operational guidance).
United Airlines published an investor update on its IR website containing business outlook information and financial/operational guidance. The update is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 and is intended to be read alongside an earnings press release. This is a routine Regulation FD disclosure mechanism companies use to provide guidance updates to all investors simultaneously.
Event · Item 2.02 — Results of Operations and Financial Condition
United Airlines disclosed Q2 2026 financial results via press release.
Added in current filing · verify on EDGAR →
On July 15, 2026, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. ("UAL"), the holding company whose subsidiary is United Airlines, Inc. ("United," and together with UAL, the "Company"), issued a press release (the "Earnings Press Release") announcing the financial results of the Company for the second quarter of 2026.
United Airlines announced its second quarter 2026 financial results through a press release. The 8-K itself does not disclose the actual financial metrics—revenue, earnings, guidance, or operational data—only that results were announced. Investors must review the attached press release (Exhibit 99.1) for the substantive financial information.
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